Bitcoin

I'm getting sick watching bitcoon rise and rise. Up past $40 today, and I don't see any selling pressure just yet. People are buying them to hoarde, and the price could easily rise to several hundred dollars before crashing again.

I still suspect some technical weakness will eventually be found in the bitcoin system. You have to remember the originators of bitcoin are unknown, and their only control over the cryptocurrency is an emergency alert system secured by a private key. If anything does go wrong with the system, or even if bitcoin fluctuates too wildly, an alternative might be found (I don't think litecoin is a worthwhile alternative, being much the same as bitcoin).

Rallies in gold last about 6 months before they play themselves out, see this 10 year chart for instance, you see the same thing over and over, 6 months up, then it levels off. The 6 months has to do with new, dumb money coming into the market.

You can maybe make out a 6 month pattern with the first bitcoin bubble, this current one is much larger and faster of course, but then the usage of bitcoin is larger (though as far as I can tell no where near enough to justify the price). Without a central bank, or any prices, assets or liabilities denominated in BTC, there is absolutely nothing to control the exchange rate besides peoples reluctance to sell at a low price.

Some things I'd like to know, but don't:
How much BTC is generated per day
How much BTC is saved per day
How much BTC is traded per day
How much BTC is lost per day (through lost wallet.dat files)

Don't be surprised if more and more people come into the market, and the price keeps increasing. This just feels like the makings of a bubble, though everyone I've talked to so far decries it as too complicated and are smart enough to realise that there's no good reason for the increase in prices.

And no, I have no bitcoin, I'm staying out of this.